Social Security: It Will Still Be There
A question I have heard for decades is “Will Social Security be there when I retire?” The answer is yes. In this election year as with any other, I’ve been repeatedly asked about how the social security system will be modified, gutted or even eliminated. The question has been the same, both before and after the election, and if asked with political culpability, it has been the same question from both democrat and republican supporters.
While I cannot tell you exactly what the program will look like years down the road, I can give you a high-level perspective in this short article of how it works. Make no mistake; the program needs some sort of reform. A Summary of the 2026 Annual Reports from the Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees, found online at ssa.gov/oact/TRSUM/, explicitly relays that Social Security's combined trust funds are projected to become depleted in 2034, less than a decade from now, if legislative changes are not enacted.¹
This is no surprise, by the way. Since 2012, the trustees' reports have consistently indicated that social security’s OASDI (Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance) trust fund reserves would become depleted sometime between 2033 and 2035 if nothing is done. It’s up to Congress to figure out what those legislative changes should be. You can view detailed information about the proposed changes at ssa.gov/oact/solvency/index.html, which by the way, is the recommended resource rather than social medial gossip or political rhetoric.²
What has been misunderstood by so many people is how the program actually works. Many believe there is a pot of social security money that pays out monthly benefits, it's been “robbed” by politicians taking cash from the trust fund and spending it elsewhere, and once it’s broke, the program is done: bankrupt and kaput! Fortunately, it’s quite different from that.
Millions of us get up and go to work each day. The income we earn is taxed. In 2026, employees pay 6.2% of their first $184,500 of wages, salaries, and other covered earnings in Social Security tax. Employers match that amount, paying an additional 6.2%, for a total contribution of 12.4% on earnings up to that taxable wage base of $184,500. For those of us who are self-employed, we pay the full 12.4%. Income subject to Social Security taxation has increased substantially over time. For example, in 2020, the Social Security taxable wage base was $137,700. Compare that to 2026, where it has risen to $184,500, an increase of nearly 34% in just six years.³ The money that is collected as a tax is sent to an office of the federal government where it is deposited into designated trust funds. The trust funds are managed by the United States Treasury Department, who provides the accounting services for the social security program and manages the accumulated assets in the trust funds. Just as efficiently as the money comes in, it goes out in the form of payments to beneficiaries who are retired, disabled or widowed. Accumulated funds are invested in “special issues” of the United States Treasury. These special issues are only available to the trust funds and by law, must guarantee both principal and interest from our federal
government. Neither congress nor any politician can take money from social security’s trust funds to spend elsewhere. Trust fund money is invested in the special issue bonds, which in turn are paid back when the special issue bond is redeemed, much like if you or I were to purchase a bond as an investment and later cash that bond in to use the principal and accumulated interest.
Social Security is largely a pay-as-you-go system. According to ssa.gov, “In 2010, the program paid more in benefits and expenses than it collected in taxes and other noninterest income, and the Trustees Reports project this pattern to continue for the next 75 years.”⁴ If benefit payments (money going out) exceed tax collections and interest earned (money coming in), then principal from the trust funds may be used to fund the gap. This is much the same as if your personal expenses exceeded your income; you’d need to dip into your savings. Thus, if this continues and nothing is done, and if the trustee’s reports accurately predict the depletion of the trust funds in 2034, it is estimated that about three-quarters of scheduled benefits could continue to be paid each year. This means that the money coming in through taxation after 2034 would pay out about 3/4 of what has been projected to be paid out as future benefits.
While Social Security was never intended to fully fund our retirements, it is a substantial portion of retirement income for many Americans. The maximum monthly retirement benefits for new recipients in 2026 are as follows:⁵
$2,969 per month ($35,628 per year) at age 62 $4,207 per month ($50,484 per year) at full retirement age (67) $5,181 per month ($62,172 per year) at age 70
A married couple who each qualify for the maximum benefit at age 67 would receive $100,968 per year in Social Security income. If both delayed benefits until age 70 and qualified for the maximum benefit, they would receive $124,344 per year. By comparison, the estimated average retirement benefit paid to a retired worker in 2026 is approximately $2,071 per month ($24,852 annually).⁶
Don’t believe the scare tactics or hype that social security won’t be there in the future. Sensationalism sells. When you see advertisements, watch the news, receive a solicitation or seminar invitation in the mail, note the source and ask yourself what their motive may be. Yes, the program needs reform. The last major reform was in 1983.⁷ But to say that social security is going away is extreme.
Why am I confident that social security will survive? Because it is largely a pay-as-you-go system, backed by the full faith, credit and taxing authority of the United States government. As long as there are people who work and the government’s ability to tax their incomes, social security will still be there.
Footnotes
¹ Social Security Administration, A Summary of the 2026 Annual Reports: Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees. Available at: SSA Trustees Report Summary. [ssa.gov]
² Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary, Proposals to Change Social Security. Available at: SSA Solvency Proposals. [ssa.gov]
³ Social Security Administration, 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Fact Sheet, reporting the 2026 Social Security taxable wage base of $184,500. Available at: SSA 2026 COLA Fact Sheet. [ssa.gov]
⁴ Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary, Proposals to Change Social Security. Available at: SSA Solvency Proposals. [ssa.gov]
⁵ Social Security Administration, 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Fact Sheet, maximum Social Security benefit for a worker retiring at full retirement age: $4,152 per month. Additional maximum benefit figures at ages 62 and 70 derived from SSA 2026 published benefit schedules. Available at: SSA 2026 COLA Fact Sheet. [ssa.gov], [maximizemy...curity.com]
⁶ Social Security Administration, 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Fact Sheet, "Estimated Average Monthly Social Security Benefits Payable in January 2026." Average retired worker benefit: $2,071 per month. Available at: SSA 2026 COLA Fact Sheet. [ssa.gov], [ssa.gov]
⁷ Social Security Amendments of 1983, Public Law 98-21, signed April 20, 1983. The legislation is generally regarded as the last major comprehensive reform of the Social Security program.
